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Notes to Myself

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The Goods and Services Tax (GST) – Archive

I just created an Archive on Demonetization – the so-called “surgical strike” on Black Money in India. There was another “masterstroke”, a “bold and massive reform” a “game changer”  since Demonetization – The Goods and Services Tax (GST). Everything that the current Government does is touted as a Game Changer (I wrote a blog on it). However, with GST the Government took hyperbole to another level. They called it as “India’s new Tryst with Destiny” and to mimic the original Tryst with Destiny (the one involving Nehru – hope you remember who that person was), the Government held a mid-night session to launch and celebrate GST.

I have been following the GST discussion/debate for some time new. Our IIM-A professor had briefly educated us on GST in early 2016. GST was not as controversial as Demonetization – there was a large consensus that GST as a concept is good. The devil was in detail. The implementation part of it. And since its hasty launch on 1st July 2017, GST is proving to be a nightmare – more worrisome than Demonetization. So I read and watched few good videos on GST.

I thought of creating another Archive for GST to keep track of all good material on GST. The list is not long as of now but it is very informative. Arvind Datar, a prominent lawyer, and author has extensively talked against GST and some of the key issues he spoke of are clearly evident now. He called GST as “the most terrible thing that will happen to the country

Do watch the first two talks by Arvind Datar on GST:

Arvind Datar on GST

A more detailed talk by Avinash Datar on the Constitution, Federalism and GST


A small primer on how GST is bad for small businesses

In Hindi – Overview of GST

In Hindi – Latest changes in GST (6th Oct 2017)

In Hindi – Ravish Kumar’s overview of GST

 

 

 

 

 

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Demonetization – Archive

Yesterday (8th October 2017) we completed 11 months of #Demonetization; and now we are into the 12th month. We’ll complete 1 year of Demonetization on 8th November 2017 and there is bound to be a lot of debate on whether Demonetization was successful or not, and to what extent (and at what cost).

I have been following many discussions, debates and articles on Demonetization during last 11 months and have also blogged a few times. So I thought of creating a thread – an archive to start compiling all such links related to Demonetization at one place.

Will keep on adding to it and you are also welcome to contribute.

Blogs I wrote:

Magnitude of Demonetization

Demonetization and Fiscal Deficit

Interview with think tank behind Demonetization – Anil Bokil

One Month After Demonetization

Audio/Video on Demonetization:

My Professor at IIM-A Satish Deodhar discusses on Demonetization

 

Raghuram Rajan on Demonetization

Amartya Sen on Demonetization

Economist Arun Kumar on Demonetization (in Hindi)

Arun Kumar on Black Money and Black Economy (on backdrop of Demonetization)

Arun Kumar on Demonetization and Black Money

(Marathi) नोटाबंदी खरेच फसली का? अनिल बोकील यांची एक्स्क्लुझिव्ह मुलाखत

S Gurumurthy on Demonetization

Subramanian Swamy on Demonetization

P Chidambaram on Demonetization

Demonetization – A Cost-Benefit Analysis

Hindi – Ravish Kumar on Demonetization

Arun Shouri on Demonetization (in Nov 2016)

Arun Shouri on Demonetization (in Oct 2017)

Early View on Demonetization (in Nov 2016)

Raghav Bahl on Demonetization (Sep 2017) – through lens of Human Behavior rather than Economics/Finance

One of the best takes on Demonetization is by Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Chief Global Strategist Ruchir Sharma where he called Demonetization as a misguided step.

Ruchir Sharma on Demonetization

Updated on 11th October 2017:

Yashwant Sinha on Demonetisation ‘Our worst fears have come true

 

 

 

 

Something interesting and something humorous on Stock Markets

In an interesting research paper, Michael Bar-Eli, et al, analysed 286 penalty kicks in top soccer leagues and championships worldwide. In a penalty kick, the ball takes approximately 0.2 seconds to reach the goal, leaving no time for the goalkeeper to see clearly the direction the ball is kicked. He has to decide whether to jump to one of the sides or to stay in the centre at about the same time as the kicker chooses where to direct the ball. About 80% of penalty kicks resulted in a goal being scored, which emphasizes the importance a penalty kick has to determine the outcome of a game.

Interestingly, the data revealed that the optimal strategy for the goalkeeper is to stay in the centre of the goal. However, almost always he jumped left or right. In short, goalkeepers choose action (jumping to one of the sides) rather than inaction (staying in the centre). If the goalkeeper stays in the centre and a goal is scored, it looks as if he did not do anything to stop the ball. The goalkeeper clearly feels lesser regret, and risk to his career, if he jumps on either side, even though it may result in a goal being scored.

Just like the goalkeeper, professional trader too feels compelled to play every trade that is out there in the market. In most cases either the event is already priced in or it just does not play out in line with the popular belief. Despite data proving that frequent trading might be counterproductive, the norm is always to act. Action seems to always triumph inaction.

So the next time you feel compelled to place a trade in the market, remember sitting around and doing nothing may just be a better option.

In short, just follow Charlie Munger’s advice:
CM-Stock.jpg

And now something humorous!

P.S: I have a puzzle on the probability of Goalkeeper’s best strategy to defend goal post…will post it soon!

 

मराठी मोजमापे…

धान्य मोजण्याची मापं :

दोन नेळवी = एक कोळवे

दोन कोळवी = एक चिपटे

दोन चिपटी = एक मापटे

दोन मापटी = एक शेर

दोन शेर = एक अडशिरी

दोन अडशिर्‍या = एक पायली

सोळा पायल्या = एक मण

वीस मण = एक खंडी

चार शेर= एक पायली

आठ पायली= एक कुडव

आठ कुडव= एक गिध

वीस कुडव= एक खंडी.

एक शेर म्हणजे जवळपास ८५० ग्रॅम. एक पायली म्हणजे ४.५ कीलोला थोडे कमी भरते.

सोने-चांदी-औषध मोजण्याची मापं :

गुंज तुम्हाला माहीतच असेल. नसेल तर इथे पहा : गुंज

आठ गुंजा = एक मासा

बारा मासे = एक तोळा

अंक :

१ – एक

१० – दहा

१०० – शंभर

१००० – हजार

१०००० – दहा हजार

१००००० – लक्ष

१०००००० – दशलक्ष

१००००००० – कोटी

१०००००००० – दशकोटी

१००००००००० – अब्ज

१०००००००००० – खर्व

१००००००००००० – निखर्व

१०००००००००००० – महापद्म

१००००००००००००० – शंकू

१०००००००००००००० – जलधी

१००००००००००००००० – अन्त्य

१०००००००००००००००० – मध्य

१००००००००००००००००० – परार्ध

चलन :

तीन पै = एक पैसा

दोन पैसे = एक ढब्बू पैसा

दोन ढब्बू पैसे = एक आणा

दोन आणे = एक चवली

दोन चवल्या = एक पावली

दोन पावल्या = एक अधेली

दोन अधेल्या = एक रुपया

अंतर :

तीन फूट = एक यार्ड

१७६० यार्ड = एक मैल

दोन मैल = एक कोस

Pearls of Wisdom

IMG_20170317_075705
Understand your Circle of Competence

Bertrand Russell in his essay “In Praise of Idleness” IMG_20170317_075535

 

IMG_20170317_075454
Idi Amin might have said this explicitly but many other world leaders (democratic or otherwise) practice similar philosophy. They just don’t acknowledge – knowingly or unknowingly.
IMG_20170317_075441
Multiple ways you can look at this. Either creativity is a con game (one can also create an elephant using same dots) or making sense or just chance event. However, it is definitely different than what experience produces (good or bad)
IMG_20170317_075229
Found this on Twitter. Liked it a lot…
IMG_20170317_075154
This is so true…and yet I cannot stop myself from refuting. May be some day I will… 
IMG_20170315_094333
This is profound! Are we asking the right questions? Are we solving right problems?
IMG_20170219_082809
Happy (belated) “Pi Day” – 14th March (3/14)
Screenshot_2017-02-22-10-07-29
Common sense – and yet so difficult to grasp. Would you rather prefer to be a normal healthy person with all organs working properly, or a very powerful person with few disabled organs?

 

Interesting forwards on Valuation

I received a series of interesting forwards on Valuation of companies. It shows how markets reward future growth over the steady and stagnant growth.

Valuation, Jan 2017:

  • Snapchat: $25 billion
  • Viacom: $17 billion

Valuation, Jan 2014:

  • Viacom: $37 billion
  • Snapchat: $3 billion

Facebook valuation in 2007:

  • $15 billion (after Microsoft investment)

Facebook’s valuation in 2017:

  • $377 billion

Valuation – February 2017:

  • Ford: $49 billion
  • Tesla: $44 billion

Valuation – February 2012:

  • Ford: $49 billion
  • Tesla: $4 billion

2016 Revenue:

  • Google: $90 billion
  • Time Warner: $29 billion

2010 Revenue:

  • Google: $29 billion
  • Time Warner: $27 billion

Apple’s valuation in 2017:

  • $700 billion

Apple’s valuation when iPhone was unveiled in 2007:

  • $75 billion

Valuation, February 2017:

  • Amazon: $400 billion
  • Walmart: $210 billion

Valuation, February 2012:

  • Walmart: $202 billion
  • Amazon: $82 billion

Number of Google Employees: (Global Workforce*)

  • 2017: 72,053
  • 2011: 32,467
  • 2007: 16,805
  • 2005: 3,021
  • 1999: 8

*start of each year

 

 

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