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Notes to Myself

Remembering my grandfather…

17/11/17

Today is Birth Centenary of my late grandfather…he was one of my first and major influences and remains so till date. Remembering the fond memories and good lessons from the time I spent with him!

आज माझ्या (कै.) आजोबांचा १०० वा वाढदिवस आहे… माझ्यावर प्रभाव टाकणाऱ्या अगदी सुरुवातीच्या आणि महत्वाच्या व्यक्तींपैकी ते एक होते…आजही आहेत. त्यांच्या खूप चांगल्या आठवणी आणि शिकवण आजही माझ्याबरोबर आहेत…

willow-tree-grandfather-grandchild-figurine-root-26058_1470_1Grandfather

 

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Good Read: I AM NOT AN EXPERT, I AM EXPERIENCED.

I came across this post on LinkedIn and liked it; so thought of sharing here (with due credit)

leader


I AM NOT AN EXPERT, I AM EXPERIENCED.

I see so many people label themselves as a Thought Leader, Expert & Guru on LinkedIn. Lord knows how many #1 authors are on this site. Good for them! Congrats on their hard work & achieving their goals.

I am none of the above.

Write a book? I can’t even color in a coloring book. I color as if i am blind-folded. Never in the lines.

Thought leader? Naw, not me. My thoughts are my own. I’m not trying to sell my thoughts & ideas. My thoughts are what I have seen over the years & my conclusions.

Influencer? I can’t even get my daughter to clean her room. That’s how much influence I have on people.

Expert? Never will be & never want to be. To me, expert means you have decided to quit learning because you have nothing else to learn.

All I am is experienced. I have learned from bad experiences & from good experiences. All I do is write posts from all of my experiences. I do not claim to be anything but honest & realistic.

My goal with my posts is that I hope someone can take something I write about & apply it in their private and professional life.

I want to thank everyone for their support of my posts. I want to thank everyone that have agreed/disagreed with what I have written.

You are the experts, I am the student.

written by Jay Jensen (LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jay-jensen-45b88686 )

 

अजूनही… दाटून कंठ येतो…

colors marathiSur-Nava-Dhyas-Nava-Colors-Marathi-Musical-Show-Title-01

झी मराठी सारेगमप आणि कलर्स मराठी सूर नवा ध्यास नवा – दोन्ही संगीताचे कार्यक्रम एकाच दिवशी आणि एकाच वेळेस सुरु. Interesting! हे collusion शिवाय शक्य नाही. कारण आधी बरीच तयारी केलेली असणार. बहुतेक वातावरण निर्मिती साठी दोन्ही कार्यक्रम एकत्र करणेच फायदेशीर असेल…

 

बरोबर १० वर्षांपूर्वी २००७ मध्ये झी मराठी सारेगमप लिटिल चॅम्प्स हा कार्यक्रम झाला. तेव्हाच्या खूप चांगल्या आठवणी आहेत. कारण ती माझ्यादेखील एका रम्य अनुभवाची सुरुवात होती.

 

आत्ता हे कार्यक्रम बघताना त्या अनुभवाची, व्यक्तीची खूप खूप आठवण झाली, होत आहे!

 

Feeling choked… 😦

 

विसरायचा अनेक महिन्यांचा प्रयत्न…एका आठवणीनी कोलमडून पडतोय.

 

खूप खूप आनंदात रहा… stay blessed! You deserve all the happiness and smiles!

 

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For all Hindi movie songs buffs

You will like this if you are a Hindi movie songs buffs…

7 Songs with similar Tune 🎼…but based on different ragas (that’s what a friend told me. I have no knowledge to confirm it)…That’s the beauty of our film music.

You may also like this:

Chronicles of plagiarism in Hindi film music industry
Hindi songs copied or influenced from some other song

 

Demonetization anniversary

Today is the first anniversary of #Demonetization in India. And the nation is divided vertically on whether it was a disaster or it was a divine act. You cannot be in the middle, you have to have a position. And based on that you will be labelled and attacked/trolled/criticized or revered/hailed/saluted.

Here are few articles I am reading currently:

The Economist Article

Demonetisation’s Economic Impact: $15 Billion On 3 Vital Sectors

A year after demonetisation, its effects have still not been quantified

But black money is not kept under the pillow: Pronab Sen of IGC India

An Account Of India’s Attempts To Curb The Black Economy, And Why They Don’t Work

The stated objectives of #Demonetization were:

  1. To curb black money – unsuccessful. Because all cash is not black money. And black cash is a flow and not stock. We should have focused on Black Wealth.
  2. To stop terrorist funding – unsuccessful. It may have reduced terror funding for a while; but during last one year new currency notes were seized from terrorists
  3. To move India towards less-cash economy – only partially successful. Because of very low base, there was initial jump in Digital transactions (when expressed as %, it looked even bigger), but that has stabilized or is slowly declining.
  4. Ravi Shankar Prasad, the union minister has invented another illogical and nonsense “benefit” of demonetization yesterday. Check below news reportDemo5

 

On downside, there was tremendous chaos. Almost 150 people died while standing in queues. Standing in queues was hailed as a badge of patriotism. This caricature summarizes that thought well.

Demo6

Economy contracted drastically – this was further accentuated by poorly executed GST implementation. The cash is back at the previous levels. Instead of 500/1000, we have 2000 rupee notes – so black cash can be stashed even more conveniently. And yes, there is no chip in 2000 rupee note!

Government is going all out and deploying several ministers, MPs and media agents to “celebrate” this day as “Anti Black Money Day”. This is like adding insult to injury. Nobody is favoring black money. But that cannot justify the illogical and ill-planned step that Demonetization was.

And there were rumors that today the PM might announce another “masterstroke” move – against Benami property (illegal/unaccounted property). Well, you can only keep calm and wait till 8 PM today for another “Mitron…” moment. Till then, happy Demonetization anniversary – in whichever way you choose to observe it…

P.S.: Don’t forget that today is also birthday of BJP Marga Darshak L. K. Advani! Born on 8th Nov 1927.

P.P.S: For Marathi people, आज पु ल देशपांडे यांचा देखील जन्मदिवस आहे (८-नोव्हेंबर-१९१९)

 

 

 

 

Demonetization anniversary eve

 

This is what Dr. Manmohan Singh had said about Demonetization in Rajya Sabha – monumental mismanagement! A case of organized loot and legalized plunder…!

He had predicted a fall of 2% GDP and he was largely right!

 

Rs. 2000 currency note was supposed to have a chip, according to this Aaj Tak report!

https://twitter.com/athif/status/927780658709192705

Demo2Demo1

Here is the latest interview of Dr. Manmohan Singh on the anniversary of #Demonetization

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/2017/11/06/demonetisation-manmohan-singh-to-narendra-modi-on-economy-inequality-jobs-formalisation-rbi-digital

Demo3

If you want to see how the “brain behind demonetization” Mr Anil Bokil spoke a different tune before and after demonetization watch these two interviews (in Marathi).

Anil Bokil interview just after Demonetization was announced

Anil Bokil interview after Demonetization was confirmed to have failed, after RBI statistics

नोटाबंदी खरेच फसली का? अनिल बोकील यांची एक्स्क्लुझिव्ह मुलाखत

See difference in his body language and confidence; how defensive he gets in the second interview.

More than 100 people died standing in queues. Huge visible/tangible negative impact on Economy. What was achieved? How much of it is sustainable? Was Demonetization worth it? Who takes the responsibility and accountability for this monumental blunder?

Good Read: The Power of Compounding Small Daily Decisions

If you invest in stock market you would have heard umpteen times the importance of “Power of Compounding”. It is a basic mathematical function – exponential – which leads to huge numbers as the compounding frequency increases. And the same is true about decay function, or negative compound as well. However, the world of investing is always in complete awe of power of compounding.

The principle has some value, but I think it is now one of the most misunderstood concepts. Some true stalwarts have quoted compounding, which are often used to sell the concept. For example, Albert Einstein famously said:

Einstein-Quote on Compounding.png

“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”

— Albert Allen Bartlett

This is very true – mathematically. It is also true in case of personal finance. That is how all Mutual Funds sell their Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs).

Then the same principle is used to create “inspiring” or “most motivational” message such as follows:

compoundposter

And this is where the misunderstanding of power of compounding lies. The message says that if you give your 99% everyday – for 365 days – you would end up at 0.03. If you give 100% everyday – for 365 days – you would end up at 1 (the message doesn’t mention it, but that’s the baseline case). And if you give “a little bit extra”, 101% everyday – for 365 days – the result is staggering! You would end up at 37.8! That is 37.8 times more than what you would achieve by giving 100% everyday! Just 1% extra effort and such a huge reward! Really motivating! But only for people who don’t understanding mathematics properly.

It is all good in pure numbers, but it doesn’t work in that manner in real life. CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate) is a derived number – based on what you achieved over a period of time. It is not something which you can “chase” or “set as target rate”. Most of the life happens in non-linear manner and it would be foolish to chase a rate of compounding.

Also, “giving 1% extra or 1% less everyday” is all good in theory – what does it really mean? How does it translate into actions? It doesn’t make sense. It may motivate some people to start something but not to sustain it forever.

Does it mean that the idea has no utility? Absolutely not. It helps us understand that

  1. Starting early and sustaining it for longer period has huge advantage
  2. Having a trajectory is important. Purpose of CAGR should be just as a guiding path, not as a target. You will have to continuously monitor and revise the trajectory to achieve goal. Because things don’t happen in linear manner as planned

Here is another chart that is often cited by long-term investment community and advocates of “patience” and “power of compounding”

WB Net Worth

This is how Net Worth of Warren Buffett grew exponentially, after age of 50 or so. Yes, graphically it is true. And if you have read Buffett’s letters, he would talk of CAGR of ~19-20% for 50-52 years!

But that’s the backward-looking calculation. You cannot start today and say that you would earn 19-20% returns every year. That’s plain wrong. You cannot chase target in that manner. You’ll have to earn 30-40-50% returns for many years and limit bad years to lower returns (0-3-5%) or even occasional negative return years (-5 or -10%).

So the way compounding can help is by setting some intermediate milestones, say 5-10 years and setting different compounding return targets for those milestones. Remember, it is very easy to grow $100 to $200, but extremely difficult to grow $1M to $2 million (and far more difficult to turn $1 Bln into $2 Bln).

And yet, the idea of compounding is very appealing in investment world and lot of people try to apply it in different domains. Here is one interesting article I read today:

The Power of Compounding Small Daily Decisions

Intelligent Fanatics is an interesting initiative and you can read some interesting articles on their blog. It is also available in Book format.

Another interesting website you should follow for worldly wisdom is Farnam Street run by Shane Parrish. Farnam Street is the address where Warren Buffett lives. Though it is named after Buffett’s home, the blog is largely influenced by Buffett’s partner Charlie Munger‘s concepts of mental models.

Do check some interesting articles there and share more of such resources if you know.

First anniversary of Demonetisation

One year after “Mitron…” Day i.e. remembering (not celebrating) first anniversary (8-Nov-2016) of Demonetisation…

Will post throughout this week jokes and articles that showcase the blunder called Demonetization.

Here is a parody song to begin with:

बार बार फैंको, हजार बार फैंको…

Remembering Shakuntala Devi

Today is 88th birth anniversary of mathematics wizard Shakuntala Devi, known as the “Human Calculator”.

Google created a Doodle on her 84th birthday to honour her…

 

https://www.beaninspirer.com/shakuntala-devi-amazing-indian-human-computer/

As a child the only source of Mathematical puzzles for me were the books by Shakuntala Devi (before I discovered Martin Gardner, Sam Lloyd and W. Sawyer, Alex Bellos et al).

Fields Medal winning American mathematician of Indian origin, Manjul Bhargava explained in one of his talks the difference between math savant and a math genius. By his definition Shakuntala Devi would be called more of a Math savant, and not math genius; nevertheless she is very popular and inspiring person for lot of young students who love mathematics.

 

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