I try to follow Gartner Hype Cycle for various technologies. For the uninitiated, it’s a graph of emerging technologies with Visibility (“the Hype”) on Y-axis and Time on X-axis.
The curve has a standard pattern – the euphoria in early period leading to “Peak of Inflated Expectations”, followed by “Trough of Disillusionment”, “Slope of Enlightenment” and “Plateau of Productivity” as the last and steady-state. The pattern itself is subject to criticism or debate, but that’s how they plot “the hype”.
Observed over the years, the hype cycle throws a lot of insights. See the Hype Cycles for 2016 and 2021. By 2021, according to the Hype Cycle, only “Predictive Analytics” has entered steady-state (plateau of productivity). The rest all are still in various “hype phases”.
The reason I remembered this today was an OCR scanner app I downloaded on iPhone, for handwritten character recognition. I remember that we had implemented a small project (a POC actually), way back in 2018 to automate invoice processing using OCR. The technology was emerging at that time and the success was limited. The “hype” we had sold to the client couldn’t be realized (the accuracy was between 30-40% when the expectation was 90-100%).
I was trying to locate OCR in 2021 Hype Cycle and couldn’t find it (particularly handwritten text) as a separate mention. Maybe it’s implicit or hidden in some other jargon. Maybe not.
The point is that the industry comes up with too many hypes, to many labels and jargon and many have a short shelf life. Very few reach the “Plateau of Productivity” stage. And that’s how the industries (particularly, technology industry) works. What matters in this journey is understanding the fundamentals, basic principles so that one doesn’t get carried away by or obsessed with the new fad, the new hype.
The OCR app I downloaded works reasonably well, however the free version doesn’t process a long text. And I didn’t find any need for purchasing the paid/premium version. In short, the technology is proven (to some extent), but the business case (at least for the end consumers) is not so compelling.
This highlights another point. The technology must have a sound business case, a compelling and scalable use case – usually for enterprises. Without that it would just remain a toy, a pass time and not a business offering or utility.
What elements of Gartner Hype Cycle 2021, according to you, have a potential to move into “Plateau of Productivity” zone by 2025?
I am intentionally not referring the 2022/2023 Hype Cycles because they’ll take some time to progress/mature.
ekoshapu 
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