Good Read: The Price of Certainty

I follow many good people, thought leaders on Twitter. Unfortunately, I also follow just too many people there. So I often miss some of the great posts that appear on my timeline. I feel I need to bring back focus and discipline in the kind of things and people I follow. Not just on Twitter, but life, in general. I’m chewing more than I can swallow, and spreading myself too thin.

Anyways, fortunately I just noticed a great post titled “The Price of Certainty” by Ian Cassel, one of the great thought leaders of current time (in the field of Finance/Investing), who is very active on Twitter.

The first few lines/words which appeared in the Twitter feed got me interested in the entire blog and hence read through it immediately.

I’ll also post only a small glimpse of the post and urge you to read the complete article here.

Before that, here are opening lines to get you interested:

You learn from hindsight and get paid for foresight. Often times an opportunity exists because the conditions aren’t perfect yet. You have to pull the trigger in advance of all the pieces coming together. Investment success is determined by two things:

  1. How well you assimilate imperfect information
  2. Your ability to identify when you are wrong quicker 

The price of certainty is expensive because it slows you down. We want to know everything. If I just knew a little more. A little more. A little more. But knowing more often times breeds confidence but not accuracy.

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