Survival Deviation

𝗔𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀

During World War II, the Allies mapped bullet holes in planes that were hit by Nazi fire

They sought to strengthen the planes by reinforcing the areas that received more bullets (shown as red dots on the picture)

Theoretically, it was a logical deduction. After all, these were the most affected areas

But Abraham Wald, a mathematician, came to a different conclusion: the red dots represented only the damage to the planes that were able to come back home

𝗔𝗰𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗵𝗶𝗺, 𝘄𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼 𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀, because these are the places where the plane would not survive being hit

This phenomenon is called 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘃𝗶𝘃𝗮𝗹 𝗱𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. It happens when you look at the things that have survived when you should focus on the things that didn’t.

What are you looking at in the current crisis? Where are we taking bullets or where should we act?

This has suddenly become a popular story in last 1 year and I have seen numerous forwards and posts on social media with various version of it. So I thought of posting one more version 🙂